Ignorantium
More reactive than flourine. Funnier than boron.
Who Needs to Watch Basketball When We Can Just Do the Math?
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Here is a great read from Wired for the statistically-inclined college hoops fan. Basically the idea is that playing the same picks as the rest your office mates in this years pool will likely keep you in the running, but it won’t yield a win or even get you in the money. Instead, he’s devised what he calls a high-risk/high-reward strategy that looks for teams that are either likely not to be picked, and yet may be a favorite. Those are the games where the pool winners excel. (If everyone is picking right or wrong in every game, then the no one is really moving up or down, so pool winners differentiate themselves in those marginal games.) For the stat jockeys out there, the article even provides a link to the spreadsheet containing the figures. Since I’m a work from home guy, and my wife and two little girls don’t watch basketball, March Madness can be a little lonely. This year I’ll follow the tournament through the prism of some statistical analysis. It may not be as exciting as watching the games, but it may free up a few hours.

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